Know about portfolio concentration risk before an LP asks.
DSignal Sentinel watches sector and stage concentration across your live portfolio and flags risk building up before it becomes the conversation at the LP meeting.
Concentration is found at the quarterly review, or by an LP.
- Checked once a quarter. Sector and stage mix are worked out when the review deck is built.
- A stale tracker. The spreadsheet is as current as the last time someone updated it.
- The LP asks first. Risk that built up quietly becomes the conversation at the LP meeting.
In DeelSignal DSignal Sentinel watches the live portfolio and flags risk while it is building up.
A flag on the dashboard, not a finding in the review.
Three steps, drawn on Demo Capital’s Fund III portfolio. Pick a step to see where it happens.
Steps advance on their own; pick one to hold it.
The question arrives already answered.
Concentration builds a few points a quarter. DSignal Sentinel flags it the quarter it crosses the threshold, so the partners decide what to do before the LP meeting, and the answer is in the report.
How exposed is Fund III to fintech?Meera Iyer · Orbit Pension · never needed to send it
Reserves are sized by simulation, not by one number.
Each company carries the reserve strategy the partners set. The fund runs those strategies thousands of times against the dry powder it has left, and reports the spread.
One strategy per investment.
A company’s need is either a reserve ratio on its initial check, or the check that defends a target ownership through a projected round. That check is backsolved with the same round engine as the cap table. A strategy that cannot be resolved is counted and shown, never read as $0.
Graduate, or don’t.
Every trial draws once per company against its graduation probability. A company that graduates draws its full follow-on, and one that doesn’t draws nothing. Multi-stage companies walk their stages in order, each with its own probability and check size.
Companies fail together.
An optional market factor, and a sector factor shared by companies with the same sector, link the draws inside a trial. Without them, a fund of twenty companies looks safer than it is. Probability uncertainty can be added per company as a Beta prior.
A range against dry powder.
The run reports P5, P10, P50, P90 and P95 of total reserve need, set against closed fund size less deployed capital and accrued fees. It also gives the probability of a shortfall with its standard error, and the top 20 companies by share of the P90 tail.
Reproducible by seed. The seed defaults to the fund and the as-of date, so the same inputs give the same percentiles on a rerun. Base, Downturn and Boom overlays rescale graduation odds, round valuations, timing and exit multiples before a run, never during one.
Seen by the partners before the LPs.
Sees the fintech flag on his dashboard the week it crosses 35%.
Keeps sector, stage and check size current on each company record.
Sees the flag when the next fintech deal comes to a vote.
Reads the answer in the Q3 report instead of asking for it.
See it on your own pipeline.
We walk the job through on Demo Capital’s records first, then on a copy of yours.